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Oil prices dropped amid expectations of increased supply from Iraq and Russia, as US President Donald Trump pushes to end the three-year conflict in Ukraine. Brent crude fell to around $74 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $70. The president of Iraq’s Kurdistan region indicated that oil exports could resume next month after nearly two years of suspension.

Trump is also planning a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as this month. While traditional European allies are being sidelined, Trump stated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be involved in peace talks. A potential agreement could affect the status of Russian oil under sanctions. 

Crude prices have been volatile due to Trump's unpredictable tariffs, some of which were quickly reversed, and his threats of sanctions on oil producers like Iran. Prices surged on Friday after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned efforts to reduce Iranian oil exports to below 10% of their current levels, but then dropped amid doubts about the feasibility of the plan.

Market indicators are showing signs of weakness, with the spread between WTI’s two nearest contracts turning into a bearish contango structure — meaning near-term contracts are cheaper than longer-dated ones — for the first time since November. Speculators have also reduced their net bullish positions in both Brent and WTI.

Paraphrasing text from "Bloomberg"all rights reserved by the original author