Image Credut: Bloomberg

Netflix (NFLX) is set to release its first-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Thursday, with options markets signaling an expected stock price move of around 8.5% in either direction in the week following the report. This suggests that the stock could range between $893.47 and $1,059.09. Due to U.S. financial markets being closed on Friday, any significant price movements won't occur until next week.

The high uncertainty surrounding the report is reflected in the broader options market, which is pricing in its highest average implied moves since the first quarter of 2020. According to JPMorgan analysts, the average implied earnings-day move for the stocks they cover is 8.1% this quarter, compared to a realized average of 6.5% last quarter and 5.9% over the last three years.

JPMorgan also compared the post-earnings moves and implied volatility of the 60 largest S&P 500 stocks and found that Netflix has one of the most underestimated post-earnings moves. Over the past three years, Netflix's stock has averaged an 11% post-earnings change, making it one of the most volatile stocks in their sample, along with Meta Platforms (META). Only nine of the 60 stocks in their analysis had smaller-than-average implied volatility, including Nvidia (NVDA), Meta, Broadcom (AVGO), and Oracle (ORCL).

Heading into earnings, Netflix stock has shown positive momentum. Shares jumped nearly 10% after its fourth-quarter earnings beat estimates in January, with the company raising its 2025 revenue forecast and increasing its share buyback program by $15 billion. Similarly, in October, Netflix's strong earnings and the success of its ad-supported subscription tier led to a more than 11% surge in its stock.

On Tuesday, Netflix's stock rose after reports that the company aims to double its revenue to $78 billion by 2030, a target that could push it into the $1 trillion market-cap club alongside companies like Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN). Despite a 1.5% drop in shares on Wednesday due to a broader market sell-off, Netflix's stock has increased 8% this year and 56% over the past 12 months.

Analysts are generally optimistic about Netflix, with Oppenheimer maintaining a “buy” rating and a $1,150 price target, confident that Netflix will remain resilient in the face of tariffs and potential economic slowdowns.

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